How it works
Four steps turn raw reports into a scored, attributable rumour.
1 — Collect
We poll RSS feeds from major outlets and 1st-tier journalists on Bluesky. Each item becomes a SourceEvent with text, URL, language, and timestamp.
2 — Bundle
A merge engine groups events that describe the same transfer (same player, similar club pair, overlapping window). One rumour, many sources.
3 — Attribute
For each source we mark its role: origin, independent confirmation, citation, denial, or noise. Reposts no longer inflate the signal.
4 — Score
Three deterministic scores — probability, confidence, heat — are computed from stage, source tier, denial weight, and recency. Numbers refuse to lie: when sample is too small, the score is 'Insufficient'.
Next
The full formulas live on the methodology page. Every probability you see is auditable.