Methodology
Every probability we publish is computed from a deterministic formula you can audit on this page. We do not invent numbers; when we don't have enough data, we say so.
Stages
Each rumour sits at one of the following stages. The numeric base score determines the lower bound of the probability for the stage before per-source contributions.
| Stage | Base score | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Noise | 2 | Unsourced or fan-account chatter. |
| Watch | 8 | Low-tier first mention, worth tracking. |
| Interest | 18 | Coverage that names the player on a shortlist. |
| Contact | 30 | Reported contact between agent, player, or club. |
| Talks | 45 | Active negotiations reported. |
| Bid | 58 | Formal offer submitted or imminent. |
| Advanced | 72 | Detailed terms being settled. |
| Agreement | 85 | Personal terms or club-to-club deal agreed. |
| Medical | 93 | Medical, travel, or signing imminent. |
| Official | 100 | Confirmed by the club, league, or player. |
| Dead | 0 | Cancelled, denied, re-signed, or completed elsewhere. |
Source tiers
Every source is assigned a tier. The numeric weight is the multiplier used in the source-boost term of the probability formula.
| Tier | Weight | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| S | 1.00 | Official channel — club, league, or player. |
| A+PLUS | 0.92 | Repeatedly accurate top-tier reporter. |
| A | 0.82 | Trusted journalist or specialist outlet. |
| B | 0.62 | Regional press or beat reporter. |
| C | 0.38 | Tabloid or second-hand citation. |
| D | 0.14 | Fan account, community, unverified. |
| F | 0.00 | Repeatedly false or AI-suspect. |
Recency-weighted reliability
For every source and every individual journalist we compute a time-decayed hit rate. An accuracy event from yesterday counts more than one from a year ago.
- Half-life: 180 days
- Minimum sample: 10closed-out events. Below this we publish "insufficient data" — never a number. Default: 10.
- 95% CI: Wilson score interval, computed from the raw event count (not the decayed sample mass) so old data never quietly drops you below threshold.
Denial handling
A high-tier denial is treated with the same visual weight as the original report. The denial-classifier writes to an admin queue only — a denial role is never auto-applied without operator review.
Calibration
A daily backtest replays scoring against historical outcomes and publishes Brier score / log loss / per-decile calibration.
Open calibration plot →