transfrumr
2026-27 Summer Window opens soon· in 16 days

Calibration

We claim a probability for every active rumour. This page reports how accurate those claims have been against actual outcomes — the same honesty test a weather forecaster faces. Lower Brier score is better; a perfect forecaster scores 0, an always-50% forecaster scores 0.25.

Preliminary — sample size is below 100. The numbers below are shown for transparency but are not yet a reliable calibration claim.

Sample size
0
Brier score
0.000
Log loss
0.000

Calibration plot

blue = mean predicted · green = actual rate
010%
1020%
2030%
3040%
4050%
5060%
6070%
7080%
8090%
90100%
harness 1.0.0 · snapshot offset 24h · updated 2026-06-15 06:45